Project overview

North Central Catchment Management Authority (NCCMA), which is the authority responsible for determining flood risk for the northern region of the shire, has recently revised and updated its flood risk mapping for the areas of Kyneton, Carlsruhe, Malmsbury, Lauriston and Tylden.

The updated mapping incorporates the latest recommended climate change considerations for flood estimation and builds upon the existing work of the Kyneton Flood Study 2019 and Rapid Flood Risk Assessments 2020 for Tylden, Malmsbury, and Lauriston.

Kyneton and Carlsruhe

In 2019, NCCMA conducted a comprehensive flood study to improve the accuracy of flood risk mapping, by including updated data and detailed modelling of the Campaspe River and Post Office Creek through Kyneton. Prior to this work, flood extents were based on geological mapping, which was considered unreliable.

This work resulted in the Kyneton Flood Study 2019 document. In late 2019 Council, in collaboration with NCCMA, carried out targeted engagement to inform residents affected by this work. The study included a recommendation that the Macedon Ranges Planning Scheme should be amended to show the updated mapping.

Tylden, Malmsbury and Lauriston

NCCMA, as part of a joint initiative funded through the Victorian and Australian governments, commissioned the Rapid Flood Risk Assessments project. This project provided preliminary estimates of flood risk for 21 townships within the region. This work resulted in the three Rapid Flood Risk Assessments for Tylden, Malmsbury and Lauriston (2020).

Changes – New climate change work

Geoscience Australia publishes the Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) guidelines as part of its role to provide authoritative, independent information and advice to the Australian Government and other stakeholders to support risk mitigation and community resilience.

In August 2024, the ARR guidelines were updated to provide specific advice on climate change considerations for flood modelling. Based on this advice, NCCMA updated both the Kyneton Flood Study 2019 and Rapid Flood Risk Assessments 2020 (Tylden, Malmsbury, Lauriston) to incorporate climate change considerations.

The outcome of the new modelling predicts an increase in rainfall intensity for the 1% Annual Exceedance Probability (1% AEP) rain events; these flood events are also known as a 1 in 100-year rainfall event.

Due to climate change, these rain events are now predicted to be larger and cause more extensive flooding compared to previous modelling. Accurately mapping the 1% AEP is essential as this is used to identify areas subject to flooding in our planning scheme, and is the basis for the Land Subject to Inundation Overlay (LSIO) and Floodway Overlay (FO).

As a result of the new climate change work, NCCMA recommends changes to the existing LSIO for Malmsbury, Tylden and Lauriston and the introduction of a new FO and LSIO for areas of Kyneton.

You can view the proposed changes to see if your property is affected via the link to an interactive Pozi map below.

Updated mapping - click below

You can view the proposed updates to flood mapping, to see how your property may be affected.

Next steps and having your say

Following the initial consultation period (Stage 1) of informing directly affected residents, Council will seek authorisation from the Minister for Planning to prepare a planning scheme amendment, to introduce the proposed mapping changes into the Macedon Ranges Planning Scheme.

Further public consultation on the proposed changes will occur as part of the planning scheme amendment process. Those affected by the proposed changes will be able to provide feedback to NCCMA and Council during this stage. NCCMA and Council will seek to resolve any issues raised during this period.

Any unresolved issues will be referred to an independent Standing Advisory Committee set up by the Victorian Government to hear matters relating to flooding.